New US measures against imports can become political instrumental duties are tested to damage measures against imports threatening national security, allows SECTION 232 US trade legislation. The current threat was explained by the high dependence on foreign metal, the reduction of internal production and capacity. US Trade Minister Wilbur Ross in the article The Wall Street Journal noted that since 1998, the "countless number of steel and aluminum plants" was closed, 75 thousand lost. work places. But Donald Trump decrees and statements are noticeably different from the beginning of March, when he in response to the tough criticism of other countries wrote in Twitter that "Trade Wars is good". Now the president explained: "We must protect and develop steel and aluminum industry, but show significant flexibility and cooperation with real friends who honestly come with us in trade and military relations".
Zhong Shan, Minister of Commerce PRC, March 11 (Quote on RIA Novosti)
There are no winners in trade wars. If it arises, it will be a real catastrophe not only for the two countries, but also for the entire global economy
According to Boris Krisznova from Alpha Bank, US capacity (113 million tons of steel per year) in 2017 were loaded by 72%, imports amounted to 30-35 million tons, the release of primary aluminum is less than 1 million tons during imports up to 6 million tons. The largest supplier of steel (16% for the first nine months of 2017) and aluminum (over 50%) for the country – Canada. Also in import steel products significant shares (7-13%) from Brazil, South Korea, the Russian Federation and the European Union, and Russia, China and the United Arab Emirates at about 10% in imports of aluminum.
Why the United States closes from import steel and aluminum
Canada and Mexico are recognized as "special case" due to cooperation and mutual commitments on national security, economic integration and geographical proximity of the production base. According to Donald Trump, Australia can also be an exception.
The United States is ready to adjust the size of duties and for other countries with which there is an "important relationship in the field of security" – if you agree on the "alternative ways" settlement of the issue with the threat of imports of such countries for the United States, referred to. Also, exceptions for individual groups of goods can be made at the request of American consumers after consideration by statements by the US government led by the Minister of Commerce.
"Alternative ways", as shown by the last days, at least two. The first looks like a trading war. On March 11, Donald Trump wrote in Twitter that the EU, whose "wonderful countries" lead a very bad policy in trade with the United States, complains of duties, but if the Europeans cancel their "monstrous barriers and tariffs" for American products, the Washington will answer the same. Otherwise America can put cars from the EU and so on.
As the EU is preparing to answer new American duties
The record appeared after negotiations in Brussels between the USA, the EU and Japan. According to the results, a member of the European Commission on the Trade of Cecilia Malmstrom emphasized that the EU "as a close partner of the United States of Safety and Trade should be excluded from the declared measures," but "unambiguous clarity regarding the exact procedure" is not yet. In early March, EK threatened the United States with replimental duties on steel, Bourbon, jeans and peanut butter.
The second option was announced by the US Finance Minister Stephen Mnuchin on March 9. According to him, Donald Trump wants to be sure that NATO will receive more funding from European allies, exceptions for duties may be considered for two weeks.
For Russia, an option with a decrease in duties for goods from the USA is unlikely possible (sources "Findfairfaxandloudounhomes.com" say that the Metallurgists of the Russian Federation, on the contrary, may ask the government about the response duties), and the second most of the reasons are not applicable. Assets in the US, mainly rental, have Evraz, NLMK and TMK, and RUSAL supplies about 10% of volumes in the USA.
Why Donald Trump went to the global trade conflict
Evraz do not comment on the situation, in NLMK they say that "will look for a decision in the framework of the legislation". In TMK, noted that duties "will have a positive effect on IPSCO (American Division Company.- "Findfairfaxandloudounhomes.com"), which does not import steel as raw materials, for other enterprises an assessment of the impact of measures is not completed ". "RUSAL" plans to continue deliveries to the USA.
Sources "Findfairfaxandloudounhomes.com" among metallurgists say that, although officials of the Russian Federation have not yet come out with loud statements, but work with the industry is conducted. The main thing is to begin intergovernmental consultations, prepare response measures for the United States and prevent the import of imports to Russia, notes one of the interlocutors "Kommers. Boris Grotoznov notes that, despite the low cost of metallurgists of the Russian Federation, exporting steel blanks to its factories in the United States, their competitiveness in this market may decrease due to the exclusion of fees for Mexico and, possibly, in perspective – Brazil. For "Rusal", the analyst continues, negatively exceptions on duties for Canada, also supplying primary aluminum in the US.