Russians warned about the possible increase in morbidity…

Russians warned about the possible increase in morbidity…

Coronavirus: Why are Russia’s COVID-19 numbers so low?

Russians warned about the possible increase in the incidence of COVID-19EPIDSITUATION. All Vizvitelneglava Rospotrebnadzor Anna Popova reported that the incidence of coronavirus in the Pskov, Murmansk, Tambov and Voronezh regions, as well as in Karelia and Kalmykia exceeds the average Russian indicators.
And in 18 regions, where restrictions were removed for the elderly, according to Mrs. Popova, the incidence of representatives of this age group is growing.

She stated that regional authorities should decide on the withdrawal of restrictions “Weigly, in cooperation with the main sanitary doctors, so as not to raise the health of citizens”. The weakening of restrictive measures for older people, according to Anna Popova, and it is possible only after the formation of collective immunity, that is, after the completion of the vaccination of this population group. The head of Rospotrebnadzor reported that 103 cases of the British strain of coronavirus and 10 – South African were revealed in Russia.

“All of them were brought from abroad. Internal distribution today is not registered, but it is definitely not excluded, given the high ability of the virus to cause asymptomatic clinical trends. We work in all the foci as widely as possible in order to prevent distribution, “Mrs. Popov assured.

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Note that mutations found in the UK and South Africa, scientists recognized more contagious. There is evidence that the South African version may also be resistant to vaccines.

The head physician of the medical center “Leader-Medicine” infectious player Evgeny Timakov calls the concerns of the authorities “Fair”. In a conversation with “”, he clarified that “for all the epiditational solutions”, the virus needs about two months to start actively multiply. Thus, according to infectious examiner, the number of detected cases of the British strain in the Russian Federation may grow already in mid-April. In addition, he continues, it should be expected that people who have sought a year ago will be inflamed and lost immune.

The Zaborate Institute of Molecular Genetics of the Russian Academy of Sciences Konstantin Severinov believes that cases of new strains in Russia can be significantly larger than the official data.

According to him, to reliably identify these mutations, it is necessary to have a developed system of full-genened sequencing of virus options. In Russia, this opportunity is “very limited”. At the same time, Mr. Severinov notes that the possible third wave is not related to the emergence of new forms of the virus, although they are really more contagious. It is caused by the fact that in the overwhelming majority of countries, most of the population has not yet been infected and has no immunity to any standard, nor to new strains.

Russians warned about the possible increase in morbidity ..

So, in mid-March, the European Commission announced the beginning of the third wave of coronavirus in Europe. And the US authorities at the same time stated that the fourth wave of the epidemic could begin in the country – there are approximately 60-70 thousand. cases of new infesses daily. “The uncertainty in the question of the third wave in Russia is caused by the fact that no one knows how many people really have been infected, and has immunity. If, for example, 15% over the past year, then this is one option. And quite another thing, if 60%. The number of vaccinated people is negligible, so they can not be considered in this equation, “said Mr. Severinov” Kommersant “.

Head of the Center for Intellectual Logistics St. Petersburg State University, one of the authors of the mathematical model of the dissemination of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation Viktor Zakharov also linked the possibility of a third wave “With not very active” vaccination campaign.

Back in February, scientists amounted to the “extremely optimistic” forecast, according to which the decrease in incidence rates was expected in Russia in Russia in the second decade of April, in Moscow – in the first week of May, in St. Petersburg – after May 10. However, the calculation assumed that vaccination by this time will cover more than 60% of the susceptible to the virus of the population and people will continue to comply with mask. Note, by March 31, according to various sources, the first component of the vaccine received 6.3 million Russians, or 4.35% of the country’s population.

Associate Professor of the Department of Infectious Diseases Rudn Sergey Voznesensky Nevertheless, assesses the epidemiological situation in the country as “moderately optimistic” – provided that the Russians continue to listen to the authorities. He recalled that every day the number of people with natural or artificial immunity to the virus, including its new forms, is increasing, and the incidence has been on the plateau for several weeks. “If we responsibly comply with restrictive events, the probability that we will have a sharp rise in incidence, I would rate as not very high,” Mr. Voznesensky said “Kommersant.

In the Ministry of Health “” reported that the situation with coronavirus “remains tense”, despite the decrease in the incidence in general.

“We are monitoring the circulation of coronavirus strains, – told the press service.- Properties of virus strains obtained as a result of sequencing are constantly being studied. The results of our studies show high efficiency of vaccine to protect against the British strain. Efficiency against the South African Staff is currently being studied by specialists. “. The departments added that at present, 115 thousand were deployed for patients with coronavirus. beds, the volume of free karea fund is estimated as sufficient.

Russians warned about the possible increase in morbidity ..

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