The Benefits of Paid Sick Leave for Workers, Employers, and Pretty Much Everybody
The country is sent within a weekly paid leave to avoid hospitalization with customer formulations of measures The government should be made public in the coming days, then it will also be possible to evaluate the cost of the “anti-corrosive-stimulating” package on March 25: It is now obvious that we are talking about several hundred billion rubles, that is, 1% GDP.
The most expensive component of this amount for the economy as a whole – that, however, inevitably, given the actual sanitary nature of this measure, will include an additional non-working week in 2020, from March 30 to April 3, that is, the “long weekend” until April 5 inclusive. The main idea is not hidden – this is a limitation of the movements of the population and its contacts paid by the majority of employers. An unscheduled decrease in GDP in this case may also be about 1%. On March 25, the Mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin, announced that the “non-working” week in the city would not be a shopping and entertainment weeks: Moscow passes in fact on the pre-ordinary mode, similar to the regime in the EU countries two weeks ago, – with the closure of non-food retail and the sphere of non-courage services, but without direct restrictions of the work of transport and movement of the population.
Almost the entire entertainment sphere will be stopped, however, in this weekend and in the regions.
The destructive impact on the small and medium-sized business of these measures, the decline of business activity and sales Vladimir Putin offered to stop the support of the most affluent industries – now it is airlines and the tourist industry, with the inevitability of them the entire leisure industry, a significant part of the mass services – the accurate list will be installed and expand the government. From the wording of Vladimir Putin is not obvious, there will be all measures to extend to the microenterprises working in these sectors, small and medium-sized businesses (up to 250 employees, turnover or balance assets to 1 billion rubles.) or on the whole small and medium business in the Russian Federation (which is less likely).
Small business hoped for more
First of all, it is a delay in all taxes except VAT, for the next six months, a semi-annual moratorium on their bankruptcy and debt collection (including loans for which the delay also operates) and fines, a decrease for all SMEs, paying salaries at least minimum wage, Cumulative creation rate from 30% to 15%. Microenterprises (up to 120 million rubles. revenue, up to 15 employees) a delay will receive and on social bills.
Vladimir Putin stressed that this measure is expected not temporary – for the sake of “estimation” in this way of the service sector of the ISL Taxes in these sectors, apparently will be perennial. The issue price in this case is poorly defined – a considerable part of service SMEs in the country works “in gray”, in fact they are set in front of the choice: immediate legalization on preferential terms or risk of independent ruin without state support.
Why Vladimir Putin suffered a vote for corrections
The second part of Putin’s Pack – Social. The most expensive here will increase the limits of social benefits and unemployment benefits: until the end of 2020, the lower threshold of payments on the hospital sheet – 1 minimum wage per month, the bulk of the bulk of unemployment benefits is also 1 minimum. Obviously, these measures are primarily intended to stop the possible splash of unemployment in the poorest regions. For the majority of the population, including the middle class, the main insurance measures “Package” – Credit holidays on consumer and mortgage loans in confirmation of income reduction by more than 30% (the period is not established) and the simple personal bankruptcy procedure. To support families with children under three years old, payments from the Matkapital of 5 thousand. rub. In a month from April, families with children from three to seven years will receive payments not since July, and from June. Finally, for all categories of citizens, automatic prolongation of all types of gods and benefits for half a year ago without registration. With all the “nonsense” in terms of payment of measures, this is apparently the most expensive packet initiative on March 25.
Part of these expenses, in addition to weekend expenses, will pay the owners of companies and relatively rich people: in the list of measures – an increase in taxes, however, with a high probability from 2021, and not immediately (new taxes are introduced on the NK from the following tax year).
The government begins a campaign of revision of agreements on the avoidance of double taxation, allowing to withdraw from the Russian Federation to offshore jurisdictions dividends – they will be taxed at a rate of 15%.
According to “Findfairfaxandloudounhomes.com”, the process is planned to begin with Cyprus, we can talk about an additional tax flow in the amount of tens of billions of rubles per year. The second component is the introduction of interest income tax on deposits and bonds for assets in the amount of more than 1 million rubles. (55% of deposits in the Russian Federation according to DSU, i.e., about 16 trillion rubles. Deposit Mass) at the NDFL rate – 13%. This is a potentially tax flow of up to 50 billion rubles. in year. However, it is unlikely to cover even 20% of the new costs of the White House.
Measures to support major employers Vladimir Putin mentioned only one proposal – these are “additional measures to ensure sustainable lending to the real sector, including the provision of state guarantees and subsidies”.
The cost of these measures is still fundamentally indefinable – everything will depend rather not from the scale of the internal demand collapse (it is not expected too large), and from the decline of expectations, on the nature of the economic recession in the world as a whole and on the scale of instantaneous losses of the economy caused by anti-epidemic employment restrictions. For someone they will be large but one-time. For companies in any sectors that do not have reserves are probably the last: the main “Coronavirus price” will be paid by their owners, and it is unlikely that this problem can be solved even by Vladimir Putin.